If we start with what's known:
DLH. Put the bmi group up for sale, both IAG & VS expressed an interest, meanwhile bmi regional is sold to Granite aviation ( STC) DLH sign a none binding agreement to sell to IAG again STC , VS return with new offer and DLH sign a sale agreement with them also, both IAG & VS are share sale transaction to buy 100% of the bmi group ie including bmibaby & bmi regional but both aware that bmir & baby are in talks with other buyers.
So why would DLH consider VS new bid as serious after having agreed a sale STC with IAG? Why would VS go back with a new offer, but still reported as 50% of what IAG and why would DLH sign a sale agreement allowing VS to carry out DD, banks and advisors fee's will run into millions for VS so one has to assume it's not show boating.
My own view is that VS & DLH suspect that the IAG deal could get called in by the CC the VS should face no such worries and DLH want shut of bmi before year end, the IAG deal could take 6 months or more if called in and might fail if the CC put a requirement on IAG to release slots to other parties over concerns about Scottish air links and a BA monopoly on those routes.
All things being equal( but there not!) I would think DLH would prefer a sale to VS over arch rival BA/ IAG. So could go either way and too close to call, but getting off the fence I'd go 51/49 in VS favour simply because the delay cost risk is much lower and I think the bmir & baby sale will go ahead whoever DLH sign with.
