HN39, the pitch response of the aircraft when traversing an updraft zone of increasing or decreasing vertical velocity. That effect exists and has been discussed on an earlier AF447 thread, but is smaller than you suggest: The updraft increases about 2000 fpm in 5 seconds, and 40 fpm / 500 kt is about 0.05 degrees.
I mesured in your calculation at 2:10:13 increases of updraft 1000 fpm in 0.7 seconds, that was my base for delta AoA ca. 0,2 deg
but you are right this is not so much......