I expect
The Royal College would have used a phrase such as "the evidence is less than robust," rather than, "we made it up."
Although it probably amounts to the same thing.
Interestingly though, if we look at mortality rates for chronic diseases, the lines are generally pointing down, in some cases quite spectacturely. Probably as a result of all the good work done in primary care (!), much more probable as a result of better educated kids coming through the ranks, people smoking less etc.
The exception for the line direction though, is death through liver disease.
