Think it could perhaps be a political way to scale back recruitment based on the economy in general rather than the direct impact of APD?
It's probably a bit of both, IMHO the resurrection of the beloved 744s has been looking less logical with each passing day of economic gloom, though APD won't help and anything that applies pressure on the government over that tax is a good thing.
Having said that, fingers crossed for you all in the hold pool, good luck.