All these statistics/predictions are all too vague. There (currently) is an adequate supply of pilots but what their isn’t is an adequate supply of P1s.
For the past 20+ years F/Os have been produced by some of the world’s finest (European) carriers in about 2 years and the MPL (whether you agree with it or not) has now produced F/Os also in about 2 years.
What no one has done, nor has anyone any idea how to, is to rapidly produce Commanders.