Do 65% really fail?
Can anyone explain to me the training market stats?
According to my interpretation of the CAA licence stats there has been a steady rise in the number of first commercial licence issues since 93/4. However, the number of 1st IRs is much lower than CPLs and has dropped off in the last couple of years. Here are the figures:
Year CPLs IRs
93/4 527 435
94/5 627 435
95/6 645 486
96/7 692 497
97/8 845 461
98/9 790 428
99/0 No figures
00/1 966 183
01/2 954 175
The CPL(A) figure includes licence upgrades and both CAA & JAA. The IR(A) figure includes all initial IRs (PPL, BCPL & CPL).
The conclusions I draw from this is that a lot of people do CPLs but never progress to CPL/IR. I presume the sudden drop in numbers of IRs is something to do with the introduction of JAA which I think was about then; probably recording methods.
Now combine these stats, such as they are, with some even less scientific information; an approximation of those starting out on professional licences.
What I've assumed is that at some stage someone going for a professional licence has to either enrol on a modular groundschool programme or on an integrated course.
Integrated
There are 3 approved courses with the CAA:
Oxford: I'm told that during the last year most of their students seem to have been non-JAA (Algerian military and airline). Let's say 50 integrated students enrolled.
BAe: I've heard they have a capacity of 150 and courses are reputed to be full. They are picking up the Khalifa contract that Oxford lost and are reputed to be 2/3 Algerians, so that's another 50.
Cabair: before 911 Cabair might have done 50 a year. During the last 12 months it must be much less. Let's say 25.
Modular
Oxford and BGS each claim to have something like 40% of the market.
Oxford claim to have 550 students in training on modular groundschool courses. I guess what that really means is 550 courses sold to people who have not yet finished. So, let's say they actually sell 300 a year and some people take 6 months to complete, others take years (or don't complete).
Let's say another 300 for BGS.
If the market share claims are at all accurate, that means the other groundschools share another 150.
That would result in a total of 750 modular and 125 integrated students. Highly suspect numbers, I know, please enlighten me if you know better.
The figures are so suspect it would be dangerous to draw any conclusions. However, there is enough there for me to pose a question:
Is the drop-out rate really that high?
Let's assume that the number of initial IRs is still 350-400 per year post JAA introduction. It's reasonable to say something like 1,000 people either buy a modular groundschool course or enrol on an integrated course (albeit probably quite a few less in the last 12 months). That's a huge drop-out rate. And I've read extensively here that even those few who make it to the end struggle to find jobs.
Have I got it wrong, or is our professional pilot training industry really that crap?
There are lies, damn lies and statistics. But there are also flight school salesmen (and women)!