His figures are bull****.
I was in there 1hr prior to the accident. It would have been 32 degrees max that day.
It was not a crosswind, the wind was a slight left to right crosswind, but the headwind component would have roughly been between 5-8kts. That is the prevailing wind out of there.
Concerning the two local passengers, they very rarely carry baggage.
800lbs of fuel is a very conservative estimate. Thats 2hrs 40 mins flying. I would figure between 600-700 more likely with the remaining flight being only around 35mins.
Even with his figures, the runway needed would be around 850m needed to clear a 50ft obstacle. The runway is 850m.
All this is irrelivant as it was not a weight issue that caused this accident.
@ CVS, in short, yes. With all the different variables that I listed, it would be very rare for them to all line up. But from what I hear, his procedure is to put the IS into normal at 1000ft, which ruins my theory!
I had a chance to chat to a few people in the know. From the sounds of it, there was something that went pop in the engine, so its a case of just wait and see from P&W. No more theorys from me!