Guys the discussion on the woes of TCX are all very interesting and of course my thoughts are with the guys an girls that work for the second pillar of the leisure travel industry.
In my opinion I think you are assuming alot and over estimating the appetite of the general UK or European public to 'self-package' on their primary holiday. For Weekends/short breaks that's fine but for the two weeks in the summer most still go for the package - it IS generally better value.
Those of you who have discovered that 5 star hotel in Bangkok for $57 per night or fancy your 2 weeks in a secluded greek villa that you get off a mate for nothing - I have to say - are in the minority when you look at the stats. In fact that greek villa on samos that you get for tuppence? How would get there if not with the either TCX or TOM?
Take the Sharm route for example: a great case study in the neich that the package tour still holds and does extremely well.
Until 2005 only big charters operated on the route feeding tourists to the packaged(and odd diver on a seat only) to the resorts in Sharm. GB Airways started offering the upmarket BA service once a week. Continued today as Easyjet it caters for the seat only clientel and self packagers - one aircraft with a very low utilisation rate and infact operating contrary to the low cost model by flying for longer than 3hrs.
BA started a 777 from LGW in 2009 twice a week with club world etc... it fell flat on its face. Why? Because it didn't have the onward sales of the hotels and there was simply not enough traffic density the support the aircraft on its cost basis.
Today Thomson operate about 50 services a week to Sharm el sheikh from around 13 UK airports. For Thomson alone it represents a huge market with almost daily flights to MAN and LGW. Most are packaged but with a service density like that it can offer more timings and holiday durations than any scheduled/low-co can. Its also building premium exclusive resorts for its customers differentiating itself from the mass market (which it still embraces but just not entirely).
Not to mention protection for uncertainties just as what we are seeing now with TCX. Have you forgotten Excel? The public outcry from individuals who had given self-packaging at go and got seriously let down.
Package holidays are perceived to be old fashioned, uncool, trashy and little bit naff. In some respects they are but they still represent extremely good value for the 2.4 Children families that make up the bulk of the UK customer base. I'm not saying they'll do for all as it once was but not everyone is an adventurer and most people today are savvy enough to look on the net do the math and yet still end up with a package. And the numbers seem to stack up to support that - £13bn revenue and over £400million profit in 2010 for TUI.
So whilst TCX is in trouble - in my opinion because of mis-management - The package holiday isn't dead - it's just changing shape and unfortunately for TCX they haven't changed fast enough.
Last edited by World of Tweed; 24th Nov 2011 at 10:15.