This whole 'debate' is just history repeating itself. So very familiar.
I heard all these same arguments when the LoCo's started to make major in-roads in europe. The forecast was that (due to the rapid expansion and low time promotions) there would soon be LoCo aeroplanes falling out of the skies all over the place.
The guys who made such forecasts would vehemently deny any desire to see that happen (just as you do). I'm sure they really didn't wish it. I'm sure you really don't. But it would be ever so helpful al the same - they could all say 'see, I told you so' and wallow in the personal vindication that might bring.
To be brutally honest, I might have felt the same myself back then. After all, the LoCo's were doing enormous harm to our profession, and still do. I didn't like it one bit (and I never worked for one).
And yet - and yet - I've had to accept - the simple fact was, as time passed and they grew ever bigger, the disasters did not happen! The LoCo's thrived in spite of all the doomsayers, and they've had good safety records, especially when measured against a 'Legacy Carrier' like Air France. Three hull losses (with fatalities) in recent years.....
Hong Kong hasn't been touched by this revolution in the business - yet. Cathay (and the subsidiary Dragonair) have really been insulated from the shock that has swept over Europe and the US because of the unique nature of the local market. But times are changing. As mass travel grows in China, a new (but tested) dynamic takes hold. The huddled masses want to fly - cheaply.
The Legacy Carriers will feel the pressure. Upstart carriers (like Air Asia) are doing in Asia what was done in Europe, and the US (and come to mention it - where are Air Asia's multiple hull losses?).
Luck plays a big role in all this - I'll give you that. And reputations are easily destroyed. But be careful what you wish for.
I think its great that CX and KA pilots are well paid btw. I think that's the benchmark for all to aspire to, rather than envy.
But unfortunately, I've lived through this before. I know how it starts, and I know how it ends. The new world order has finally landed on your doorstep.
You might as well try holding back the tide.
Last edited by Algol; 23rd Nov 2011 at 15:12.