I have to agree with the majority of what’s posted above with the exception of their being any new UK start-up. I’ve been around Aviation all of my working career and am now in the position of not knowing what to do next. I think maybe it’s time to move away from the airline side of this business in the UK as I can’t see any new UK AOC ever being granted.
My personal opinion is that the lo-co’s have totally ruined what was the charter airlines business and we will never see a recovery from this. It’s all now down to a matter of the amount of ‘cash in the bank’ to ensure you can ride out the winter. Don’t get me wrong, this has been the case for the last 15 years within the charter airlines and they know it, but what isn’t helping is the lack of confidence in the European market and quite simply over capacity which has destroyed yields.
My take on the current position in the UK market (sad as it may seem) is as follows:
Astraeus – Sad demise yesterday. I understood a large Airline from the sandpit was keen to make offers for the AOC but sadly the management refused to talk to them.
Ryanair – massive over capacity this winter (slightly less last year), will be interesting to see how much cash goes down the drain over the next 6 months propping up the ‘stored’ aircraft. Yields will be well down next year when full fleet up and flying again. Will still be supported by the ‘first time’ travellers.
Easyjet – Stelios has been shouting for a good few months now that need to trim down which they seem to have managed partly and I think they have now completed all planned deliveries. Yields will be down next year, but will have a better quality of passenger when people trade up from Ryanair. Will continue to slowly attract a core base of more frequent travellers that dont like using the other lo-co's.
Monarch – clutching at straws, missed the lo-co boat about 10 years ago but still drastically trying to prove themselves as a player to paper over the massive downturn in IT charter flying. B787’s ditched as no longer any Long Haul requirements from the UK. May last another couple of years before the owners get fed up with cash injections.
TUI – large capacity reductions in fleet moving back towards the B738 away from B757’s. B787 will be a disaster as Long Haul is on its knees due to the massive APD taxes and the historic winter cruise operators have already relocated ships back to Europe because of this. Further capacity reduction over the next few years.
TCX – as seen by today’s share slump, they seem to have eaten through £100m in the last 3 weeks. Fleet being reduced (sensibly it seems as they have spotted the end of Long Haul charter) but carrying £902m debt, albeit do have some cash in the bank. Will they be allowed to fail? Unlikely as banks will have to step in (I am sure Airtours were around £945m in debt when they were merged into TCX). Further capacity reduction or failure over the next couple of years.
Jet 2 – difficult to call. Seem to have made some big moves and established a good foot hold in the lo-co market. Will all depend on if they can get their fleet renewed and on-time performance sorted and get Jet 2 Holidays up to strength before pax start voting with their feet.
BMi Regional – headed for a sale, will merge with Loganair over the next couple of years.
Loganair – will disappear and be merged into BMi regional.
BMi Baby – will be sold and be re-branded. Will grow slightly over the next couple of years and then be absorbed by one of the lo-co’s.
BMI Mainline – airline will disappear when swallowed up by IAG.
So, what does that leave us...? Gatwick without a based Airline and a diminishing choice of carriers which will inevitably lead to an increase in fares and monopoly on some routes which will remain operated by one of the inferior lo-co operators.
The saying was ‘the futures bright, the futures orange’; sadly I’m not so sure about the ‘bright’ part of that these days.