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Old 22nd Nov 2011, 14:47
  #10 (permalink)  
Narrow Runway
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
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Everyone is far too simplistic.

Thomas Cook is FAR more than just Thomas Cook Airlines, or a UK tour operator.

It has far reaching, tangled, tentacle like reaches and these have got badly wound up in Russia, France, Belgium and all sorts of other exotic markets.

We are in the middle of a perfect storm, and this is just the beginning. Unfortunately, Thomas Cook will not survive this in its current shape.

The only options are:

1) A trade sale and subsequent asset strip;
2) A debt for equity swap (Banks lend more money to repay debt, but assume a MASSIVE equity holding in the company in return thereby wiping out the remaining value for remaining shareholders), or;
3) It is bankrupt.

And seeing as the banks have no money, or appetite for increased lending, I'd say the writing is on the wall.

In my view, it is 1/3 on option 1 and 2/3 on option 3.

Very sad indeed.
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