some truth in that but bmi one company maybe come 3 or 2 or none!
bmi is a good example, they failed to keep up with the changing market and never grew big enough to stay with the pack.
Mainline will go to IAG, Regional will become a niche player which if it grows to the right size will be bought or become part of the "big five" grouping. And there is baby....
EasyJet started with 2 ACMI 737s and Ryanair was a basket case who were on the verge of bankruptcy when MOL took over. So it is possible to start up and become a Big Player, but it needs inspired leadership and a shed load of cash added to an insane amount of good luck and timing.
Whilst it may seem bleak and miserable at the moment, now is the time for a cheeky wee start up to become an easyJet or Ryanair competitor in 5-7 years time.