Don,
I think the point falcon made, in far more gentlemanly terms than I would have, is that you absolutely HAVEN'T "debunked any Boeing flight deck banter". (??)
Projections are merely conjecture. How about examining the actual numbers regarding upgrades vs. fleets, in the last few years and then seeing how they correspond to credible orders for the next few? (By credible, I mean airplanes actually currently on assembly lines.) Sure, it won't be perfect, too many variables (DEC's, fleet transfers).
But I think you'd find they make a pretty strong case for the "join the Boeing" mindset. Of course it's not black and white, some guys are really happy to be FO's on the 380 or in Dubai more on the 330 or whatever. But sit in the right seat, they still do, while their brethren with the same range of S numbers have commands. Uncomfortable seat and all. Simple fact. That equals experience, dirhams, and options. If the 330/340 fleet is going away and there are no contract 380 jobs, I know which fleet I'd want to be on. But then I was never a big Dubai fan.
Announcements are cheap. Perhaps I'd have more faith in the 380 numbers if the a/c had reliability even a small percentage of that of a B777. Talk to the engineers, read the ASR's. Hell, talk to the pilots. Airbus, as usual: oversold and underdelivering. Perhaps I'd believe the A350 orders if they were more than a gleam in an engineers eye, ever getting smaller in the distance. Perhaps I'd put more stock in "Timbo's" pronouncements if I thought he would even be on the premises much longer.
But another 50 for the "dying fleet" puts paid to a lot of nonsense and wishful thinking.