From the photos I have seen, the ejection gun had fired..... The front cockpit MDC had either fired or been ejected through, whilst the rear was intact. From my distant memory of hawk sysems, I believe the MDC safety pins are fitted about the mid point on the canopy, on the stbd, by the hinge line .... Are there 1 or 2 pins, not sure whether 1 pin for all MDC, or 1 pin each for front/rear MDC..?
Regarding the question of the rocket pack firing unintentionally, and in isolation from any other ejection sequence events, I would speculate (I'm a rigger, not an armourer) that there would have been huge amounts of scorching in and around the cockppit area, as the rockets don't normally fire until the seat is on it's way up the rails powered by the ejection gun. To launch the seat by rockets alone would result in loads of fire damage to the interior and exterior of the cockpit areas, and a short range ejection result.
At work, I have heard other rumours, that have neither been seen in the press, or aired on PPRUNE, so I will leave them as speculation for the moment. The official enquiry should be definitive, there will have been several witnesses, and, although I have elaborated upon a technical point in response to a point raised by another member.... I will not speculate upon the causal factors.