So what is replacing the 744s?

[B-HKD]

I would say the A380 vs B747 choice depends on how soon the A380 stretch is announced.

Airbus originally planned a 79.4m(10 frame stretch) long -900 up from the -800s 73m. But Udvar-Hazy has been pushing for a 85.1m(19 frame stretch) together with EK.

With dedicated freighters going to most if not all of the destinations across the pacific currently served by -300ER's in north america, I really doubt limited belly space is as big of a issue as most people make it out to be for CX.

Keep in mind that unlike the -8F, the -8i is not suffering from the same performance setbacks and Lufthansa (launch customer with 20 orders and 20 options) has stated repeatedly that they are very satisfied with the progress so far and mentioned the -8i will do everything they expected it to do.

Unexpected performance gains have already been made by a better than expected wing profile on the -8i and furthermore, the GEnX PiP3 (starting 2013 deliveries) which is expected to bring the current +2.7% fuel burn on the engines within +1% of promised fuel burn, is to be quickly followed by a PiP4 which will finally bring the fuel burn down to what was promised or better.

With a order to be announced in 2012 at the earliest, CX would receive -8i's no earlier than 2013.


Comparing cargo capacities:

Note: 744, 77W and A380 numbers are from SQ
Also note: SQ has the lower crew rest fitted to the A380 which takes up substantial belly space.

The -8i would not have this problem.

747-400

capacity: 32 LD-1 / 5536cu.ft + 835cu.ft bulk (total 6371cu.ft)

baggage: (for 375 pax) 14 LD-1 / 2422cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 3114cu.ft + 835cu.ft bulk (total 3949cu.ft) / 18 LD-1

777-300ER

capacity: 44 LD-3 / 6952cu.ft + 600cu.ft bulk (total 7552cu.ft)

baggage: (for 278 pax) 12 LD-3 / 1896cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 5056cu.ft + 600cu.ft bulk (total 5656cu.ft) / 32 LD-3

A380-800 (with lower crew rest)

capacity: 30 LD-3 / 4740cu.ft + 650cu.ft bulk (total 5390cu.ft)

baggage: (for 471 pax) 19 LD-3 / 3002cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 1738cu.ft + 650cu.ft bulk (total 2388cu.ft) / 11 LD-3

without belly rest: 3336cu.ft/ 17LD03

B747-8i (Boeing numbers)

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 12 LD-1 + 2 LD3 or 36 LD3 / 6345cu.ft + 640cu.ft bulk (total 6985cu.ft)

With CX having frequencies and freight as its top priorities, it is very easy to see why they love the -300ER and if they need the additional seats and belly capacity the -8i has to offer, then it seems like a match made in heaven.