Strikes me as good planning gone to sh*t by the things we cannot control.
There was nothing out of control on that flight except the decision making process
BUT subject to the right combination of organisational culture and operational pressures I fear many of us could have ended up in the same spot.
How many times had he done the same or similar trips?
How many times had he managed to get in when the wx was marginal?
Had he ever received a butt-kicking for making a precautionary diversion for fuel that turned out to be unnecessary?
He didn't go past that CP for diversion
knowing they would end up in the drink. He would have been confident that he could get in.
....right up to the point where he wasn't.
Personally, I would love to know how this event has changed the HF culture and the training accross the Rex group