Monty Gordo - just my speculation, but if we consider this from a game theory point of view:
My understanding is that bmibaby announced a Birmingham - Rome route over 2 months ago. Monarch presumably will have been well aware of this announcement. However, Monarch are also aware that the bmi group is for sale, and that because of the change of ownership and general instability may have considered bmibaby either
- unlikely to actually send planes to Rome (i.e. routes gets cancelled in February 2012 for some reason or other)
- or that the new owner of bmibaby will be much more focussed on integrating a new airline into their existing operations and thus may not have the stomach in 2012 for a head-to-head fight against another airline - better to gain stability before trying for growth
Furthermore, now that Lufthansa have publicly announced bmi is being sold, and it's gone all over the press, customers may view flights with baby as a higher risk - should I book 6 months ahead with baby whose future ownership is unknown and risk my holiday being messed up or should I book with a more stable airline ?
Bmibaby has become a much less credible competitor on any new routes and thus Monarch have a greater chance of making the Rome route work.