QANTAS Exodus

[DirectAnywhere]

For those of you who don't have access to it, there is a thread running on the internal QF pilots' bulletin board which makes for depressing reading.

It looks like the exodus has well and truly started. It's not depressing for those who are leaving. I know several of them and wish them all well in their future endeavours. They all deserve a successful and rewarding career.

It does however provide an interesting insight in to the mindset of many in the QANTAS ranks at the moment.

While the numbers and my take on it are not scientific by any means, it looks like about 20 guys have just left, or are just about to leave, to move on to Emirates or other carriers. I'm not going to argue here about whether things are better in the sandpit or not. For our purposes, it is sufficient to say that it appears to an increasing number of QANTAS pilots that they are.

What is interesting is that all of these guys are relatively young and experienced F/Os between the ages of 30 and about 45. "So what?" I hear you ask. What I believe we are seeing is the start of an exodus of those with the experience to go elsewhere who are are young enough to reap the benefits of a reasonable length of time left to forge their career with a new carrier. In short, they are the experienced F/Os who would have formed the backbone of the QANTAS Captain ranks in years to come.

We are not seeing older Captains leave. They have no reason to. We are not seeing younger S/Os leave as many of them simply don't have the right hand seat time. This is not to belittle them or their skills in any way but they just don't have the experience required to move directly in to a spot with Emirates or similar carriers.

While it is clear that there will be a reduced numbers of pilots required for QANTAS mainline operations, the QANTAS group is another matter entirely. With the number of aircraft on order the QANTAS group will require more pilots. That is the plain and simple truth. While it appears the board and management may be keen to thin the pilot ranks, I'm starting to wonder whether they have just kicked a massive own goal.

No-one could accuse the QANTAS exco of having been spectacular strategic thinkers over the last 10 years vis a vis the failure to invest in a large, long-range twin, failure to recruit pilots to take advantage of the peaks, continuing to recruit when it was clear the global economy was taking a turn for the worse in 2008, the failures in Vietnam. QANTAS has always seemed to be 18 months or so behind the curve for the last 10 years or so. These examples, and many others, reek of tactical rather than strategic thinking - short term gain, longer term pain kind of thinking. Billion dollar profits a few years ago were driven by a lack of capital investment which is seriously coming home to roost now. Short term gain, long term pain.

So back to my original proposition. QANTAS management appears to be so driven on breaking the unions to achieve a short term tactical victory that it appears they may have made a strategic FUBAR by driving off those who can leave and take advantage of what they believe to be better opportunities. This is the cadre of experienced pilots they are going to need when the crop of 250 odd pilots over 60 inevitably start to retire in the next few years - for the 'Group' if not for Mainline.

We have seen a trickle of pilots leave when things have taken a turn for the worse before but this may just be the start of the flood that management have been denying would ever happen. If that flood should truly eventuate, the outcome could be far more damaging for the QANTAS group than what has transpired over the last six months.

Again, to those who are leaving, I wish you and your families well in your future endeavours.