Chinook - Still Hitting Back 3 (Merged)

[slj]

Mr Purdey

Here are some extracts from the Select Committee conclusions. You will see the word foreseen mentioned. Note also the comments in 148 "Sir John's conclusions on this matter must be weakened by his reliance on matters which he treated as facts but which have been demonstrated to our satisfaction to be not facts but merely hypotheses or assumptions"

Are you views similarly hypotheses or assumptions. They may well be correct, but there is no absolute evidence to support them.

Note also from para 147 "the question to be answered is whether there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that they ought to have foreseen that their action would in all probability occasion the final event."

146.Negligence, as a concern of the board, was not an abstract concept but could only be inferred from facts relevant to causation. Paragraph 1 of Annex G to Chapter 8 of AP3207 stated that causes of accidents broadly speaking fell into three categories: technical faults, natural operating or medical hazards and human failings. Paragraph 2 provided among other things:
"Before making a detailed assessment of human failings the board must distinguish between those irregularities which had no direct connection with the cause of the accident and those which had. This can be resolved by the answers to two questions:
a. Was the person's act which is under consideration an essential link without which the final event would not have happened?
b. Ought the person to have foreseen that their action or their failure to take action would in all probability occasion the final event?"

147. In the context of the Air Marshals' conclusion that the pilots were grossly negligent in placing the aircraft in the position in which it was at or before the way point change was made, regardless of what happened thereafter, the question to be answered is whether there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that they ought to have foreseen that their action would in all probability occasion the final event. It must be borne in mind that it is not known at what height or speed the aircraft was flying at the way point change, nor its position in relation to cloud. However Sir William accepted the possibility that they could have seen the coastline under cloud cover (Q 364). Furthermore the Air Marshals' views as to the danger of the aircraft being at or in the vicinity of the way point change position even if the crew had intended to alter course at that point were much influenced by the high speed at which they assumed the aircraft then to be travelling - an assumption which, having regard to the deficiencies in the simulation which have now emerged, may no longer be justified.

148. We consider that Sir John's conclusions on this matter must be weakened by his reliance on matters which he treated as facts but which have been demonstrated to our satisfaction to be not facts but merely hypotheses or assumptions. It must be a matter of speculation what would have been the Air Marshals' conclusion if the Boeing simulation had not been available, or if its deficiencies had been identified.

173. It follows that the Air Marshals were not justified in concluding that the pilots were in control 4 seconds before impact, or at any time after the way point change. In short it has not been established to the required standard of proof that it was the voluntary action of the pilots which caused the aircraft to fly into the hill.

174. In carrying out our terms of reference, we have considered the justification for the Air Marshals' finding of negligence against the pilots of ZD 576 against the applicable standard of proof, which required "absolutely no doubt whatsoever". In the light of all the evidence before us, and having regard to that standard, we unanimously conclude that the reviewing officers were not justified in finding that negligence on the part of the pilots caused the aircraft to crash.

Hoverstop

You say "And, in my own experience, so do most other aircrew when the topic has been discussed outside the portals of Pprune"

I bet they wouldn't if they were involved in a similar incident and survived