BIRMINGHAM - 5

[Guest 112233]

Re OP's Stats

I think its time to start watching the economic "Weather Vanes" for the West Midlands and the catchment area as a whole. Re the comments regarding MUC, (OP's figures are as always; are very enlightening). the numbers for this route seem at first glance; to be increasing.

LH like any company; will try to maximize its profits, so If they can operate a route successfully, with an EMB195 x 2 and a CRJ900, they will do just that. I suspect that they, like all the major airlines; will be utilizing "Yield management" analysis techniques to "fit" the number of seats available to the estimated future demand.

I bet the same applies for any other route. So until we get industrial economic growth in the West Midlands, the passenger figures will remain static.

Specific routes will always be subject to competitive pressures caused by what happens at the major centers' like Manchester and the London airports.

The demand for leisure destinations is very competitive and price sensitive with lots of options available from MAN,EMA,LUT and BRS. The management of the airport have historically attempted to attract business from the legacy airline companies, with a smattering of Lo Co's

Where are the routes to Central Europe ? or services to Madrid or Barcelona for onward connections to S.America. (Instinct suggests a 2 x daily with an early morning arrival/departure and an evening flight for overnight long haul/ returning passengers )

So if the decline in passenger numbers at airports like Birmingham is to be arrested, it will be by schemes like the prospective Chinese engine assembly/development center in Wolverhampton to generate both incoming and outbound traffic (No pun intended).

I'm no economist, but the decline in activity at BHX and elsewhere; is intrinsically linked to economic activity in the respective catchment areas.

So for the mid term (5 - 10 Years), the best thing that can happen is the coming of Airliners like the A320 NEO, the equivalent B73 and the EMB, for secondary airports providing links to the major European centers of activity.

Forget fantasies about long haul services, runway extensions etc.

CAT III