Originally Posted by
IO540
. The way you pose the question has no practical meaning.
Actually the way
you are posing the questions has no
practical meaning.
The bottom line is simple. Ferrying aircraft across the Pacific is not something private pilots do. Virtually all of theses flights are done by professional ferry pilots. A PPL like yourself would find it almost impossible to get insurance for the trip.
Obviously the preferred situation is a weather pattern that will produce light winds, preferably from behind you, for the entire route, thus being in the position that you will be fat on fuel right from the the time the wheels leave the ground. However this is unlikely to occur at this time of the year.
It is simply unrealistic for a ferry pilot to wait for these conditions as it may mean a delay of multiple weeks. The alternate is to launch into the forecast reducing headwind with the turn back option kept open by a careful monitoring of the flight progress. Most of the time this works out fine and by the time you get to the PNR you have enough fuel to continue with adequate reserves. Occasionally the wind Gods do not cooperate and you have to turn around which obviously sucks big time.
Very Very occasionally the pilot gets it wrong and thereby makes the news along with a a lot of speculation by folks who do not have the specific knowledge and experience of trans oceanic flying to be credible when criticizing the decisions of a pilot.............