Originally Posted by
IO540
Yes, I know that was what BPF meant. I was just playing with him
The real Q is whether one should use a forecast of a headwind dropping off in one's planning, especially in a scenario like this where you will quite likely pay with your life.
When flying the Oakland to Hawaii west bound at this time of year it is not a question of whether there is a headwind, it is how much. Unless you were extraordinarily lucky, you would likely have to wait for weeks to get a no wind or tail wind day.
It is not necessarily foolish to depart with initial headwinds that will result in insufficient destination fuel because the route wind
forecast (happy now IO 540
) is usually pretty accurate. Everyone keeps a 1/2 hour PLOG update which allows you to compare the actual headwind component to the scheduled maximum you can accept to keep going. The bad news is you may be 7 or 8 hours into the trip when you hit the no go mark and have to turn around and fly another 5 or 6 hours back to the airport you left. That is a pretty bitter pill and the temptation to push on just a little further to find those lighter winds, is going to be pretty strong, although I guess that would not be a factor to a pprune skygod like yourself.......
The other cause could be a malfunction of the ferry fuel system. I know of a guy who found out well past the PNR that the ferry tank would not feed the bottom third of the tank
. He made it but ran out of fuel on the taxi in
