Non Zero
at the edge of a second deep recession ... how long will it last?
How long will precisely what last? Depends upon what you're referring to. So, gazing into the crystal ball as the clouds of ambiguity dissipate allowing the the sunbeams of enlightenment to shine through:
(1) How long will the recession last?... A long time.
(2) How long (in the USA) will the eminently sensible and correct requirement for substantial PIC jet experience prior to being employed by a major airline last?...Indefinitely.
(3) How long will the the present hiring cycle last?... As the 60 yr+ geriatrics are (admittedly under duress) crowbarred from the left seat those on the right will spill over the centre console to fill the vacant space. Subsequently, right seat opportunities are created for regional airline types holding the prerequisite 1000+hrs PIC jet experience. But in this airline version of musical chairs the seats rapidly fill and the employment merry-go-round soon clogs solid and comes to a grinding halt - for yet another decade or two.
It's an OK time to be a regional airline captain, a not the worst time to be a regional airline first officer, but sadly a bit on the hopeless side of things to have the ink still wet on a freshly minted pilot's licence.