Level of experience doesnt really matter, it can happen to any of us if we're not paying attention, never actually bent one but had 2 near runway excursions myself this year:-
1. Tailwheel steering linkage (single metal rod) snapped on landing, very small rudder blanked by being in the 3 point attitude offered little in the way of directional control and only some rapid jabs of toe brake stopped me going off the edge of the runway at great speed...not pretty and a very close call.
2. Not flown the type in several weeks, been flying a much heavier / less responsive type that day and jumped in and headed off. Being a bit too keen, got the tail up a bit early, with a much more 'punchy' forward input than usual (brain not reset after flying less responsive type) with a strong crosswind from the left. End result, BIG swing which the rudder failed to control and again only just saved by a couple of jabs of toe brake. All mistakes I should know far better than to make but still did...
There was not much I could do about number 1 as it was a fatigue failure, a new redesigned rod has been fitted. As for number 2, it was the build-up of a few small errors which combined to cause a bigger problem.
I actually watched the pilot of a hot taildragger almost prang just last week. He came in as number 2 of a formation on a hot day on a 600m strip, floated quite far, bounced a few times and only just stopped before running off the end, from what I could see his tail was up as he stopped so must have thrown out the anchors to stop!
His number 1 landed pretty long and had to backtrack only just clearing as he was on very short finals so I would think this was somewhat distracting. He was probably about to go around but decided to land at a fairly late stage and found himself with a bit much speed....
"There but by the grace of god...." and all that....