Pretty much my read on the situation.
I haven't seen anything realistic from the US services or industry other than building C-130s in perpetuity. If the Army downsizes (as it will) there will be a lot of capacity for basic trash-hauling for a while, until the older C-130s start running out of hours, but there will still be niche missions.
Actually, if the F-35B survives and proves capable of austere-base operations (that is, doesn't blow a huge hole in the runway every time it lands) the A400M would be a good support aircraft.