Diagnostic.
Agreed, but later he deployed the speedbrakes, which therefore does fit with an overspeed mentality.
Later, yes. Agreed.
My view is that the PF's mental picture may have changed (perhaps multiple times) during the whole event sequence, which would therefore explain the seemingly contradictory actions - they were not contradictory at the time he did each one, as his mental picture of the situation had changed in the meantime.
Yes, that is a very good way to present the event from his perspective. He kept tyring to fit what was happening into a mental picture that he recognized. It seems he never succeeded.
In other words, if we consider that he may just have been trying several different actions because he didn't have any confidence of his diagnosis, then it is perhaps easier to understand why, during the whole event sequence, he did seemingly contradictory things like TOGA and later speedbrakes.
Yes.
That's my current "model" to try to explain the PF's varied actions. Does this make sense as a possibility?
Makes a lot of sense to me.