RUSI briefing paper:
Looking into the Black Hole - Is the UK Defence Budget Crisis Really Over?
......The SDSR criticised the £20 billion carrier plan that it had inherited for two new carriers and around 150 JSFs as ‘crowding out other important investment in the Armed Forces’. But it has since committed itself to a further investment of around £1 billion in converting one of the two new carriers to operate in a catapult and arrestor gear configuration. No decision has yet been announced on how many JSFs, UAVs and/or helicopters will be purchased for deployment on the new carrier.
The government has confirmed that it now envisages routinely deploying only twelve JSF aircraft on the carrier for operations, compared to the original thirty-six. And the requirement for daily sortie generation has beenreduced from seventy-two to twenty.16 This suggests that the government could now be envisaging a total JSF buy of no more than fifty aircraft. But this could still mean procurement costs amounting to around £5 billion, in addition to more than £2 billion already spent or committed for the development and demonstration phases.17
Plans for initial deployment of the new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier in 2020 suggest that the first tranche of JSF aircraft will have to enter service on, or around, the same date. It is far from clear, however, whether the MoD will be able to afford to buy as many as fifty aircraft by that date. Because the F-35 is not being produced domestically (like new submarines), or through a rigid collaborative structure (like Typhoon), the MoD has greater flexibility to vary the size and pace of procurement as unit costs, operational requirements and availability of funds alter. The projected sharp increase in deterrent production spending from 2021, together with the costs involved in bringing a new and sophisticated capability (the aircraft carrier) into service around the same time, could mean that there simply are not the funds to buy even the fifty or so JSF aircraft that at present seem realistic. A reduction in the number is especially likely if the price that the UK is asked to pay for the F-35C continues to rise........