Icarus2001
Quote:
There has never been a pilot shortage and given the amount of pilots training there never will.
This information is available in the CASA annual reports.
Licences issued each year as below:
YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ATPL 373 ... 332 .... 378 ... 488 ... 521 .. 425 486
CPL 804 ...... 670 987 .... 1162 1352 ... 1453 1344
Draw from that whatever conclusion you like but it seems to me that after the drop in training in the early noughties, there has been a rebound.
It is interesting to note the total number existing each year.
Total "current" licences.
.............. 2004 ......... 2010
ATPL .... 6028 ........ 6825
CPL ...... 4019 ........ 4189
Whatever these figures mean there is no question that experience levels for entry level turboprop and jet jobs are getting lower each year. We see it with recruitment. The progression from piston to turboprop to jet was always pretty well followed. Now we see people skip the turboprop step.
I make no comment on whether that is good or bad. I do feel the figures together with anecdotal evidence suggest a tightening supply of pilots.
Did VA negotiate a "good" agreement with their crew to hold on to them?
Many on these board like to compare us to doctors and lawyers. Look how they control their income. You cannot become a GP unless you can get a medicare provider number, these are strictly limited. You also need to be admitted to "the college". Legal numbers are similarly controlled by entry to "the bar". In aviation, anyone with a reasonable brain and enough funds can get a licence and for the most part a paying job.
Someone once told me that your salary is simply a reflection of how hard it is to replace you. Apply that logic to many fields and it seems about right.
I see where you are getting at but this is no reflection to the amount of jobless pilots out there. I remember when I finished my training in 2006, in a stream of 23 only 3 managed to get jobs straight away. About 5 of them never went on to get a flying gig and have since then simply 'given up'. Not because they couldn't be bothered looking, because there were no jobs. Any monkey can fly an airbus or a light turbo prop as companies like Jetstar have proven that is the case and experience is no longer relevant. People with 5,000hrs are queuing up to get a job with Jetstar but funny enough manage to have their applications rejected.
Name another industry to me where people pay about 100K for their education then have to work for free to get experience? Does this sound like to you that there is desperate oversupply or under-supply of pilots?
I'm out there actively looking at the job market and I can tell you it is pretty grim. I recently spoke to an operator up in Darwin operating turboprops over 5.7T and he was receiving three C.V's a day most of them meeting their company requirements.
When those license numbers drop to about half of what they are now then operators are going to find it tight to find pilots who meet their minimum requirements set out in their operations manual.
Oversupply
