Region set for travel boom, says Boeing
5:30 AM Wednesday Sep 21, 2011
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Boeing's Oceania outlook forecasts 5.5 per cent annual growth in traffic over the next 20 years as the region establishes stronger connections with other Asia-Pacific nations and the world.
New Zealand and Australia will be caught in a global aviation boom that will demand hundreds of thousands of new commercial pilots and technicians over the next two decades, according to projections from Boeing.
Soaring growth will also push fleet modernisation by the world's airlines, and force changes in strategies that are already emerging in the transtasman market.
For Oceania - essentially New Zealand and Australia - the latest annual Boeing pilot and technician outlook predicts that increased traffic, liberalisation of markets and changing business strategies will push demand for aircraft and skills.
It says that around 1000 new aircraft will be delivered to Oceania in the next 20 years, including 670 single-aisle models for routes within the region and to Southeast Asia.
About 260 additional twin-aisle airliners and 30 large aircraft will be needed for international routes. Another 3600 pilots and 15,600 technicians will be required to fly and maintain them.
The Oceania outlook forecasts 5.5 per cent annual growth in traffic over the next 20 years as the region establishes stronger connections with other Asia-Pacific nations and the world.
It says that most of this growth will be driven by flights to and from the region - rather than within it - as the importance of Southeast Asia grows as an waypost to the rest of the world.
Traffic between Australia and China is expected to rise rapidly as demand for flights grows with resources trade and investment, and increasing tourism.
The outlook also forecasts more connecting flights to North America and the Middle East.
It says the region's aviation market has already changed dramatically as airlines redefined themselves amid economic uncertainty, including the launch of Qantas subsidiary Jeststar to counter the rise of rival low-cost carriers.
Virgin Blue had tried to compete with Qantas by creating a spinoff airline, V Australia, but had since changed its strategy and was now rebranding all of its airlines under the name Virgin Australia.
And Air New Zealand had continued to innovate with the introduction this year of its new fleet of long-range, wide-bodied Boeing 777-300ER airliners, fitted with economy Skycouch seats.
But the outlook warns the sector will come under pressures as it competes for skills in an increasingly fierce global market.
Boeing Flight Services chief customer officer Roei Ganzarski said the signs of a global pilot shortage were mounting as airlines expanded their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets. Delays and operational disruptions were already beginning to appear in Asia, the strongest-growing market.
"To ensure the success of our industry as travel demand grows, it is critical that we continue to foster a talent pipeline of capable and well-trained aviation personnel," Ganzarski said.
"We are competing for talent with alluring hi-tech companies and we need to do a better job showcasing our industry as a global, technological, multi-faceted environment where individuals from all backgrounds and disciplines can make a significant impact."
The outlook says the wider Asia-Pacific region will require 182,300 new pilots and 247,400 new technicians over the next two decades - especially China, which alone will need 72,700 pilots and 108,300 technicians.
Northeast Asia will need 20,800 pilots and 30,200 technicians, Southeast Asia 47,100 pilots and 60,600 technicians, and Southwest Asia 28,100 pilots and 32,700 technicians.
In addition, Europe will need 92,500 pilots and 129,600 technicians, North America 82,800 pilots and 134,800 technicians, Latin America 41,200 pilots and 52,500 technicians, the Middle East 36,600 pilots and 53,000 technicians, Africa 14,300 pilots and 19,000 technicians, and the CIS (former Soviet republics) 9900 pilots and 13,500 technicians.
To cope, the outlook says the sector will need to keep pace with technology, including online and mobile computing, in order to match the learning styles of pilots and technicians.
"The growing diversity of pilots and maintenance technicians in training will require instructors to have cross-cultural and cross-generational skills in addition to digital training tools and up-to-date knowledge of the airplanes."
GROWTH PATH
* Boeing says around 1000 new aircraft will be delivered to Oceania in the next 20 years.
* Another 3600 pilots and 15,600 technicians will be needed to fly and maintain them.
* Annual growth in Oceania forecast to be 5.5 per cent over 20 years. Pressure will be on for enough pilots and technicians to cater for demand