I know they've been telling the guys in very recent interviews that they can expect. Upgrade to FO in a year and a half to two years.
This is total and utter BS! If anything they will stretch it out even further.
Guys upgrading now are doing OVER 4 years. These are people who mostly had 3000+ hours when they joined, get housing allowance so are not just looking for hours so they can leave, have a P2X rating that the HKCAD frowns upon being used for more than 4 years, work in a company where on 4 crew aircraft there is only ONE SO.
In about a year and a half the situation will be. Mostly people who joined with 0 to very little experience. Get practically no housing so will be looking to jump ship ASAP but need JFO hours to be able to. Have another rating (talk of P1X) that is just as useless but will make the HKCAD happy for its indefinate use. Now this is the big one, will work in a company where on 4 crew aircraft there are TWO SOs.
In my opinion guys joining now will be doing 6 years as an SO so 9 years before you can leave with some descent experience. Why would they upgrade you! After 6 years you have forgiven your loan, have 1000+ hours in a wideody and hate Hong Kong as have never had the money to have fun there. They will lose you sooner if they upgrade you.
If they keep you as an SO for 6+ years they get a reduced cost pilot who can't leave. They dont have to pay by pass pay when they hire a DEFO ahead of you as you wont be assessed until a few months before your upgrade. By keeping you as an SO they have nothing to lose but everything to gain. They do not need to increase your conditions as you are stuck. Once SOs become FOs they will have to either accept the large loss of pilots to other carriers or increase the pay. It a no brainer, a LONG time as an SO.