It's an interesting prospect isn't it. Already we hear of significant shortages in some categories but that's due to people being in the wrong place rather than any overt surplus.
I don't think we'll be recruiting soon but by the middle of next year I would not be surprised if we didn't end up with a significant shortage of crew in some categories. Already on the 744 they are asking F/Os for their leave back- a temporary thing I'm sure as April next year will solve that problem- and I reckon they'll be more than happy to carry an excess 28 Captains caused by those four aircraft going so that they can start burning through some of the significant reserves of accrued leave held by all crew on the 744.
With EK having just confirmed in the last few days that they'll now take crew on LWOP- what option do they have with so many aircraft to crew- I reckon the flood gates have cracked open just that bit more and a number of our F/Os will go and have a taste.
Whether that translates to having to recruit soon I'm not sure. Nothing would surprise me. It's not like Qantas in the past haven't told 80+ cadets to 'forget about Qantas, it's not happening for the next 3-5 years' before recruiting the first cadet three months later and all 80 of them within 9 months. If EK were to take DEC then that trickle of crew starts to look a bit more like a full scale flood and I'd say recruiting would almost be a certainty.
The real issue is whether people of the right demographic will take the risk with Qantas. If you're a pilot with the right qualifications and the options of Qantas or Virgin came up I don't think I could, in good conscious recommend Qantas at this time- not unless we have some assurances in our EBA that we'll be flying red tails now and into the future. We may face the scenario that with a stagnating promotion list but short of S/Os that no one will come- particularly with so many due back off LWOP in the next few years.
So we're left with an interesting situation. I suspect that multiple categories are going to be 'caught short' and working very hard at various times in the next couple of years simply because mainline has become so unattractive that many are bailing out.