The legal problems as they stand will take years and years to work through. And by the time its been all sorted the core of the pilots that it will effect will have been depleted to such a point that it will just die a death.
I have said before I really don't care either way it won't affect me personally at all. Its just that I am one of the few JAR lic pilots that can be arsed discussing it with you. Most like myself don't give a toss that the loophole is being shut. Which is why you have such a small but vocal core that are fighting this. The majority of pilots stick by local laws and don't use loop holes. 6000 pilots in the EU out of what 200,000 plus its not going to affect at all.
The shortage will continue as it always has of experenced skippers on certain types. FO and below there won't be an issue. Either in the EU or developing markets its the same. And there are enough skippers who want to return to fill the market in the EU many times over.
And its standard practise to say there will be an extension. It lulls people into a false sense of security and helps damped ruptions. Come the day it will go through, there will be all hell let loose for a month and that will be that, instead of another two years of bitching. Realistically I can't see a bilaterial agreement in the next 10 years if at all. It took 8 years for them to sort things out with the canadians and thats still work in progress.