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Old 1st Sep 2011, 02:40
  #13 (permalink)  
MrClaus
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Pole
Age: 93
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If you really want to understand why humans make poor long term decisions, then have a look at the 'evolution of rationality' theory. The basic concept is that we have evolved as short term decision makers and are geared towards making poor long term decisions. I'll quote a biology professor from the University of Indiana as he has said it better than I ever would.

"Humans stay out in the sun too long. In the short term, it has rewards, but in the long term, it's harmful." He adds, "That seems to be a problem with a lot of human behavior, that the scale over which humans make decisions is too short. I argue that we evolved from food-gatherers under conditions where food was probably spatially auto-correlated (concentrated in location) and that long-term pooling, or retention, of information in a hunter-gatherer society is not very adaptive."

In other words evolution has geared our brains to making decisions on short term evidence, mostly visual. If we don't see a short term effect from pollution, than our brains give that threat a low weighting against the marginal utility of making money in the short term. So it doesn't matter how much we quote statistics on however many people are dying of respiratory illness, the natural human reaction is too undervalue the information. The power of visual short term evidence is what works. Hence the use of graphic images in some Western countries anti smoking campaigns. A similar campaign in HK might be a start. Put a billboard up of a person who has died from pollution induced respiratory illness, possibly an autopsy photo, and you might get greater effect than the occasional newspaper article.

I often find that reminding oneself that the development of the modern human mind is but a blip in our evolutionary history, helps bring into clarity why we think(or don't think!) about certain things. In the end we are only a historical moment from the primates.
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