NO ICE
ICING of the Pitot Probes as some explanation for UAS is a reach. It requires too much of a chaotic system by way of lined up cheeses.
At ~2:10:01, 447 enters a substantial UPDRAFT. Immediately, she does what all large (conventional planform) aircraft do when encountering a robust UPFLOW, she PITCHES DOWN, and DESCENDS. She has a LEFT WING displacement UPWARD due to TANGENTIAL ENTRY into the rising column. airtren's accel trace shows this at 2:10:01 - 2:10:05 from 1.3 down to .7.
This accounts for her aspect (NOSEDOWN) at a/p loss, and why the PF felt he had to ROLL LEFT, and CLIMB.
What about UAS? takata tells us the AD's three failed simultaneously. If so, that really makes icing suspect, but makes clear the loss of indicated airspeeds due to a consonant loss of AIRMASS to enter the Probes. All three started sampling ambients that had changed heading relative the airframe, and by 90 degrees. So the indications declined by > 30 knots in one second, and the ADs were rejected.
The PULL? The NOSE was down by three off 0, and 5.5 off cruise. That's nearly six degrees to make up, and he was too swift, STALLSTALL. Also, the a/p was actively inputting NU to counter the PITCH down. So PITCH is iffy at the a/p drop, and PF needs to fly, and he did. No judgment.
There is more, as I see it, and it is in airtren's graph.
Last edited by Lyman; 23rd Aug 2011 at 18:45.