Captain Schmerzfrei
I would not say that you will NEVER get a base in BUD. There is a waiting list, which is strictly adhered to.
No matter how much a few vocal locals will piss and moan, when your name gets to the top of the list, you will be offered BUD.
However, there is a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong waiting list. I wouldn't bet on being based there inside the next 5 years, unless the base doubles from it's current size.
Most likely bases to be offered to new hires: KTW, CLJ, BBU, TGM or at least historically this was the case.