A fair point re outcome bias, except that my understanding is that every decision made in the heat of the moment by Chesty Sullenberger and the BA-38 driver have been second guessed endlessly and tested in simulators by the great and the good ever since the events. Did I read somewhere that if the BA-38 pilot hadn't decided to make that flap setting, all the simulator tests indicate that he'd have landed on the perimeter road at best? Did I remember correctly that if Sullenberger had decided to try to make it back to the airport, the second-guess simulations showed that he only had a 50-50 chance at best of making the runway? I suppose the Sullenberger example is a shakier example, because who can know from the outcome whether he had a better than 50-50 chance of landing in the Hudson river in one piece? But the BA-38 example is on stronger ground is it not?