we went from 14- 18 airframe detachments, which did occur ocassionally during the late 90s, early 2000s to an average of 4-6 aircraft at best
That was due to the move from SHAR to GR and nothing to do with HERRICK. A change in operational concept, ie move away from fleet defence ,rather than the ability of the force to conduct the operations.
Despite what the RN tries to portray, the reality is that we've not done a sustained carrier deployment with reasonable sized airwing (i.e. more than just a token presence to keep skills alive) for the best part of a decade.
Again due to the operation of the GR and not deploying as a SHAR Sqn with a Carrier. I deployed for 6 weeks in 2007 with the GR as a SQN, as large if not larger than any SHAR deployment in the past , and took full part in 3 large-scale UK and NATO exercises including dropping live weapons. I would suggest that, while not a 7 month tour, this is still alot more than "just a token presence".
In the planners eyes, as soon as GR9 was off HERRICK it was clear that it was never going to be deployed again operationally - the fleet was just too small
The force only became too small once the decision to remove a Sqn was taken AFTER the force had come out of Afghanistan. At no stage was anyone at Cottesmore or Wittering planning to train to be a carrier force only.