Someone joining today as an iCad SO would be an SO minimum of 4 years but most likely 6-8 years. You would then upgrade to a JFO for 1 year followed by a FO for 8-10 years. So best case scenario is 13 years to command but even with the current aircraft on order could be as long as 19-20 years.
I hope this is wrong.
2001 = 1500 pilots, 2011 = approx 2500 pilots. 2021 = 4000 pilots?