I'd say that 60% - 70% of my trips into Melbourne from the north over the last 10 years have been VFR over the top and let down to the south of Dandenong. The cloud usually runs from Kilmore area to the Dandenong ranges. Keeping to the east of Lilydale I usually have 8,500 to 12,500ft of airspace to play with if required. Need to confirm blue sky at the destination if you're trying that one, by calling perhaps Lilydale, Tooradin, Tyabb etc. Bit of a pain to track back to Essendon but if you are able to let down a little south of Lilydale it's not that far out of the way.