These are some of the analysis by Anonymous
UNQUOTE :
Anonymous said... Rather than engaging, the glib-talking TF, MAS would be better advised to imitate his model of hub and spokes using Firefly for short haul regional and MAS for long haul international. And of course reining in costs, avoiding big capital outlays or commitments and optimising aircraft utilisation and turn around time by route rationalisation and improved efficiencies, staff attrition and leveraging on technology would not be harmful for growth and profitably prospects in the least. As for TF being a saviour, forget it and here are some reasons why! No, I am not trawling the Christo route but cant help feeling that in Idris Jala and TF we have two Christo wankers with enough self motivation to drag MAS through the mire just to spite Muslim faces....(ROFL). Anyway, about Air asia................
1.As of the 1st Quarter of 2011, Air Asia (AA) debts amounted to 7.7 billion with cash balances amounting to 1.7billion.
2. In August 2010. AA announced a deferment of their proposed aircraft purchases but sometime in June 2011 they reversed their decision and proceeded to place an order for an additional 200 new aircrafts at the Paris Air Show.
3. As of 31 March 2011, based on data from their 1st Quarter report, AA’s capital commitments stood at RM 19 billion. With the above announcement, an additional RM 54 billion will be added as Capital Commitments as implied in this article:
AirAsia inks US$18.5b deal for 200 A320neo aircraft
the proposed CC of roughly 75 billion will be spread over a 15 year period ending 2026. In other words,AA has to ratchet up its earnings to an average of 5 billion per annum to meet its future dues. From 2006 to 2010. AA’s revenue grew by 10 fold from 110 million to roughly 1.1billion, an average growth of RM 200 million per annum.
4. Its cash trove rose 6 fold from approximately 300 million to 1.7 billion but its debts skyrocketed from 1.05 billion in 2006 to 7.7 billion in 2010, an increase of 700%. One gets the ghastly feeling that this is a debt burden that is spiralling out of control.
The schedule for the aircraft delivery is as follows with the Neo being received from 2016 onwards:
2012 = 14
2013 = 13
2014 = 18
2015 = 19
2016 = 19 (4 Neo)
2017 = 14
2018 = 18
2019 = 19
2020 = 20
2021 = 21
2022 = 23
2023 = 24
2024 = 24
2025 = 24
2026 = 9
To compound the issue, the world economy including Asia’s will be into another maelstrom and air travel will invariably be hit:
Airline Earnings Showing First Drop in Eight Quarters, IATA Says
and we probably will have a white elephant in NS soon give or take three years and another one of my dire predictions I made in when commenting on AA in 2009 materialises.
Of course AA can cancel orders but contract penalties will be onerous. In any case, TF is betting on the assumption that being a big borrower will shield him from foreclosure as banks will be leery of bearing heavy losses! bUt then a sizeable chunk of those loans are being held by Malaysian banks and in the worst case scenario, the government and the taxpayer will have to pick the tab to avert a financial meltdown cascading down the AA slope.
This smells like a bailout.
But the real question is for whom.
MAS might not be performing financially but Air Asia debt is increasing. Air Asia is the one in serious need for cash to pay for their 200 airplane purchase and to pay for the aircraft deliveries that have been silently deferred several times.
This is not a swap but more a buying into. The purchase of the 20% stake in Air Asia will cost more than twice the money to buy a similar slice of MAS. A 20% stake in MAS is a bigger voice on the board than a 20% stake in Air Asia.
Rationalization my foot. This can be done without an equity swap.
This stinks.
A disaster in the making. The AA bubble will burst soon and with it Malaysia will go down the drain when the Government will have to pick up the tab due to massive loan default by AA. The merger is not in the interest of the nation. Why can't the Pee Em see that? Maybe he is in it too together with the previous Pee Em?
Dumb deal set by dumber people on a nation of dummies.
the truth is gov now dont have money. some money the gov have, probably go to defense purchase for the nation 'security'.
so instead of keeping share in mas, better stick the dick into airasia, at least gov get couple of mills each year, enough to cover the karipaps and meehon goreng at each departments meetings everyday.
another
and
day.