FAA data cited in Mitchell and Revans (2004) AvSpace&EnvMedicine
Mitchell cites the risk of pilot error inducing fatal accidents commercial RTP flight by age is lowest age 50-54 years old.
Taken as an index of one, the relative risk of a 40 year old commercial pilot is 1.25, and a multiplication of the risk by 2.5 for pilots under 30. This explains the intuitively correct CRM call by Sullenberger for "my aircraft".
In a situation loaded with risk for aircraft upset, the most experienced pilot would be , according to the accident figures, by far the superior. Sorry all you young atpls...you'll be closer to magic in your late 40' s.Accident rates for pilots at retirement age are also significantly lower than the 30's and under.Interestingly,if one includes back into the stats all those older commercial pilots who have lost their medical clearance due to risk of sudden cardiac death, the statistical overall rate of pilot error accident risks improves dramatically
Froom et al (1988) describe an ever greater jump in risk (by a factor of ten) between 30 year old pilots and their 10 year younger colleagues in the miitary aviation setting.
The situation also reminds me of the now famous "Rumsfeldts", where there is alot of unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns ...the worst place to be in any aircraft.
The AF 447 situation strikes me as one in which the incipient risks required the most experienced hand flyer right from the word go...no time for liberte,egalite,fraternite.....
if you get my drift.
Last edited by Mimpe; 8th Aug 2011 at 22:04.