500 new commercial licenses in the whole of the US in one year?
I'd love to see an official FAA stat for that, but I would believe a number more like 5000...
Pilot shortage: Would be great, but I'll only believe it when wages and conditions skyrocket, companies like Eaglejet go out of business, and airlines are sponsoring their own cadet programs en masse in the US and elsewhere.
Till then, it's all just self-serving industry propaganda from people whose "food money" and stock portfolios are somehow connected to getting some young kid to sign up for flying lessons...
This extends from the counter clerk at your local flying school to the senior executives at Boeing Flight Training.
I'll tell you: that Flight Training industry is an industry unto itself... Everything is about marketing and sales.
Also remember that the US is on the cusp off entering another recession and oil is still very, very pricey.
If there is a little hiring surge, it'll be a short-lived one.