Hi Flingwings, you said:
I must be missing something. Precisely my point! Albeit I get the basis of AnFis post. Thanks
PPLs are taught to fly VFR/VMC referencing a visual horizon to a position on a windscreen. They start this exercise away from the ground and learn how it is harder (in the early stages) mastering this art nearer the ground whilst hovering. If the horizon disappears due to low cloud, then how is there anything inadvertent about the inevitable? Yes - they can't see the cues you (and I , and most people here) just find blindingly obvious ... try it with in-experienced pilots - I am sure you will be surprised. Yes that is what I am saying - the I is Inevitable not Inadvertant
(and it's not as simple as the horizon disappearing due to low cloud ... it depends on combinations of poor vis and low cloud - if the vis is 40km when the horizon dissapears due to cloud it is because the guy has flown into it already ... if the furthest point in your world is 4k away with varying visibility then avoiding flying into a cloud which you have not detected because it has no contrast against the poor vis requires some skills not yet formally identified - these skills are required when the vis is 100km over featureless conditions etc etc etc too many variables to do justice to it here...)
Why do sections of our community insist upon pressing on until tragedy? Sometimes they just don't know they are Many FIs and FEs go to great lengths to ensure their students are safe and responsible. Legislation aside, you're an FE aren't you AnFi? For the 20-30% you quote do they fail check rides? The flight tests do not require the specific tests required to reveal whether pilots have this skill set - it should ... personally I do my best to make sure pilots are equipped - if the issue is not recognised then it is unlikely that others will know of this issue.
Skill tests are most often not performed under conditions requiring skills which the pilot becomes licensed to exercise. A conscious effort by the examiner to place the candidate in a position (under appropriate conditions) where he must make these judgments is not as far as I am aware a common feature of the testing process....
When the vis is 8km in haze, in a low-cue environment and the visual world stops ahead as the cloud and hills meet - almost everybody here would recognise the dead-end nature of that flight path ... some do not. I don't believe that basic skill is tested in general...
HIHOVER of the 1000 LSTs you have performed on how many candidates have you performed this in challenging conditions (even 6k 1200ft) and deliberately loaded the candidate with a task whilst placing him in a scenario where he must take action to avoid IMC?
I suspect if you did you might be surprised at the result ...
(1000 tests is not 1000 pilots - maybe 300, of which 20% were 'babies' 10% in poor conditions perhaps, gives 6 pilots 20% of those displaying questionable ability to maintain Visual References leaves about 1.2 pilots who you might have encountered were not good at maintaining VR - have you notice 1.2 pilots like that ?) - Just a thought - worth considering - no?
... it is rather surprising that there is a skill set SO BASIC that you (and I and others) don't even realise that it is a skill set, and can't imagine there are people who don't have it. Look with an open mind and you might be surprised.
I know a thoroughly excellent (now) instructor (of 7 yrs) who whilst a PPL of 5yrs I overheard saying something which made me believe he was not processing the visual field correctly - I took him immediately flying and found that it was indeed the case that he was mis-interpreting what he saw ... showed it to him it was obvious to him and he was cured, and very good. It made me attuned to the issue.
Only trying to help....
... of course I might be wrong and the world is really full of adults with five year old children who are just so irresponsible and suicidal that they happily arrogantly and confidently launch into conditions requiring skills they don't posses - knowingly because they are mad and should be hit with a bigger stick...
... dead pilots can't speak ... those left have a duty to consider their case with absolute fairness, and not just brand them as idiots (although that may still be the case)
Good analogy TC - and 'wrong tools' includes teaching... Experience is only experience if you don't kill yourself getting it...
(obviously there is a mix of reasons and scenarios in reality - I am just saying that one factor is the surprising inability of some to interpret what they see and how to maintain their visual references - I'll get my coat then....)