PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Fallacy or Fact - Qantas International losses
Old 27th Jul 2011, 16:28
  #94 (permalink)  
tyga
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Cloud Cukoo Land
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Small thread drift:

QAN Shareholder, OK, I'll bite.

"If you really want to understand the source of the problems with Qantas international you could request the profitability for each of the international routes for the last few years. This is fraught with danger though since I suspect it would become apparent that there are routes that haven't made a profit for years and have no prospect of making an acceptable return anytime soon hence either routes or costs need to be cut. It is far easier to remain in ignorance and keep pretending that management are evil and corrupt."

I think it has already been pointed out to you that due to monumental cock ups in fleet decision by current and previous management and further monumental cock ups in the deploying of currently arriving new fleet, and future arrivals of new fleet types is partly to blame for this - directly attributable to senior management. Furthermore lets compare apples with apples.

A QF A330 and a JQ A330 theoretically have exactly the same fixed costs. Fuel, maintenance, landing charges, airways fees etc - I could go on. The only major variables are catering, crew costs and ancillary options able to be purchased. If we look specifically at crewing costs on board the aircraft - pilots in particular - they usually make up around 3 - 4% of the ticket price. If AJ states that QF pilots do actually cost 40% more than their JQ counterparts (which I think you will find is a major lie - or perhaps its an AJ calculator problem), then another 1.6% of the ticket price could be attributable by crew. This would make absolutley bugger all difference in the grand scheme of things. Then if BB and AJ say that if JQ crew would be paid QF rates, their airline model would go broke. They are pretty thin margins they are working on UNLESS, QF mainline is footing the bills. If the margins are running that thin that 1.6% makes or breaks the business, then I can hardly imagine that JQ are making their claimed 1st half profit of 143 Mil.

Now that you have a clearer picture, I'll reply to your statement. JQ aren't going to make returns on QF routes that it displaces QF from and in some cases will lose more money due to the Low Yield business model. Japan is a perfect example. QF fly full loads out of Narita but JQ doesn't come close. It is industry known that Japanese travel agents will boycott Jetstar due to its brand image from Nagoya etc and bus/train/ internal flight passengers to Narita to fly QF. One could argue that the "evil and corrupt" management that you are referring to are not at all interested in running a successful airline but would rather turn QF into a travel agency. I'm tipping that they have no idea how to run a successful premium carrier even though they had the advantage of having a multi billion dollar brand name handed to them on a plate! They obviously come from the philosophy of how to make a small fortune in aviation is start with a large one.

I'd be interested to hear what you think is going to happen with AJ and BB planting $500 mil into JQ Asia in Singapore when SQ are going to retaliate with their own LCC. Do you really think that SQ are going to let them get away with pushing in on their turf? I'm sure they've been wined and dined and told "we look forward to you investing here" but I'd say your going to see $500 mil flushed down the Singapore sewer - along with the ensuing blood bath. LCC are a cut throat industry and AJ has already been stabbed in the back by his "mate" Fernandes. Where do you think that $500 mil will be sourced?

The fact of the matter is that AJ and his band of merry men's story is changing faster than Paris Hiltons boyfriends and if you truly believe the myopic spin he keeps putting out then I guess you'd also be happy with the current share price, the direction its been taking since AJ took the helm and lack of dividends. I have QF shares and I'm bloody appalled!

Rant over.

So back to topic:

QF mainline made a first half profit of $165 mil, JQ made an 18% increase to $143 mil. Virgin made $72 mil and JB stated that the leisure market is badly performing but the business market is improving. This all sourced from Steve Creedy and the Australian newspaper. 17th Feb 2011.
If this is the case, how did QF lose more than $365 mil in 5 months, and how did JQ make double what virgin made if the leisure conditions were so bad as stated in the media? (see bad wx, floods affecting tourist destinations served by VB and JQ)

Why did QF shut down the centre of service excellence for Rollers (engine shop) when they now can't even get access to Asian facilities to get what one could consider essential modifications to the compressors? What cost can you attribute to the damage this has caused to the brand (apart from AJ opening his mouth) and why revenue stream wasn't sort when it was open for maintenance for other airlines?
tyga is offline