Geoffers,
I have a friend who has crashed 13 times in the OH-6A....11 in the Army and 2 in civvie life. The fact he is alive after a year flying Scouts(Recon) in Vietnam is proof statistics are not infallible.
Nick will explain how the laws of probability work as he has posted on that topic in the past. Just because you have your career tail rotor failure today does not in any way limit you from having another one tomorrow or a third one the day after that.....although having had the first one you may be less likely to have another one ever.
We also know HUMS is less than perfect.....if you recall a Bond aircraft losing its rotor head over the North Sea a while back. That aircraft was in cruise flight...calm air....well within all limitations...and HUMS gave no useful warning as I recall.
Let's practice Airmanship....learn to "fly" the machines we ride in...and improve our professional abilities every way possible. Leave all them colored pencils at home, put on your Pickle Suit, and go flying. It is supposed to be fun you recall!