My feeling is that you are probably correct that the forecaster raises the probability for his TAF, or put another way the met forecast is cautious. That seems reasonable to me, given what we do with his forecast.
In general, there are more options than going or not going. As others have said, there are various things you could do, other than decide to stay at home. Take extra fuel, plan out in your head your options for diversions etc. Depending upon what sort of flying you are doing and how important the task is, you also have the option of making a precautionary landing. This is a more easily adopted option for a hele than a FW. Having recently started flying non-helicopters VFR again, I am reminded hat I am much more careful about weather than with heles, because the precautionary landing is much less of an option.