Manning should be all too aware of the fact that people have options (38,44 etc), but I believe that another factor will also ramp up the number of PVR's in the very near future: The PAS terms of service.
Those on PAS have a 5 year RoS in order to actually qualify for the rather enormous PAS pension. There are a shed-load of QHI's (my world - sure it's similar elsewhere, just don't know about plank-wing stuff), about to hit that mark. I could name at least a dozen QHI's who are just waiting until the pension is in the bag, and then they are off.
Would an FRI make me stay at that point? Of course it would - I'll be 43 (rapidly approaching) and Mrs Beefer and the Beefettes don't really mind what I do, as long as the bills are paid and the annual pilgrimage to a hot beach is not jeopardised. Everything I see, read, and hear is screaming at me to get out whilst the going is good. An FRI is all that would actually make me stay - I'll accept a timebar to 55, and sign it tomorrow, but it will cost £250k
in my hand (ie after tax). Why 250k - well personally, I don't actually need any more, but I wouldn't stay for any less. I know chaps who would stay for 100, and guys who would not stay for any amount. A mere fraction of the cost of training our replacements. But hey, this is manning - the people who just made a load of pilots redundant, and are now worried because we don't have enough - something which was blindingly obvious to absolutely any frontline Flt Lt with half a brain.
