I submit that to some extent, any conjecture is true to your definiton of "over-reaching". BEA have not offered an explanation of any kind. Have you noted that? Likewise no theory. They have allowed (encouraged?) speculation. The alternative is "Wait for the final report".
I thought we were past that. I think any attempt to give the discussion "guidelines" in the absence of any attempt to provide reasonably complete data (BEA), is presumptuous. If my posts are bizarre, upsetting, etc. I rely on the mods to edit them. I have always welcomed mods input or editing; I am here by 'invitation' only. I have even edited myself, or banned me temporarily. I have utmost respect for all who post here, everyone.
I am unable to put together even such as is found here, except to take in that which is accomplished for me.
Over my Head?. Boy Howdy.