- basically what I have been saying on the other threads, but you need to FORGET 447 and think 'big picture', please? 447 is just one small cameo. In my opinion it is the speed and direction the industry is making relative to the 'progress'of human understanding.
I don't think your thinking big enough.
My issue with the whole training/complexity debate is that the debate tends to implicitly assume that the state of affairs we have at present will continue. It won't. Whether you call that 'progress' or use a more neutral term like 'evolution' technological change is a fact of life. That's a major reason why you can't rely on training to get you out of the difficulty. The training is always changing because the underlying technology is always changing and so there is no fundamental store or bank of experience than one can rely on. The idea that you or I or any group of people can yell "stop, wait till we catch up" is just sheer folly. The Cpt. with 30 years experience is in some ways worse off than the new guy because he's got the old technology cluttering his head and the new guys doesn't.
Mode confusion is just an interim problem. That doesn't mean that it should be ignored while it exists. But the long term trend is going to be the elimination of mode confusion by the elimination of the being that is confused, the human. In the short run, training probably is our best hope. But improvements in training is not a sustainable long term model for increased improvements in airline safety over the next 30-50 years.