''As a two day event with well over 20 aircraft in the Balbo each time, that makes upwards of 250 times the split had been done without incident. That suggests to me that if flown as briefed it works perfectly well.''
DH Fan
I would suggest is that the way is being done with the leader breaking first from a Vic, there is a considerable level of risk. There's a good reason why the standard formation break in many professional organisations (read Air Forces) is done from echelon with the leader breaking first. The leader should always be in view by the wingmen if done like this, therefore it's safe. The fact that this procedure has been done 250 times before without incident is irrelevant. Either they have got away with it until now or one accident in 250 breaks is the average for this procedure. Either way, it's far too high.
This is PPRuNe and we have a tradition of analysing each accident before the dust settles - something which I've tended to avoid. But I'm happy to wager a tenner that when the AAIB report is finally published, it will concentrate on how the break was done and also that there will be a change in the future.